Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
